An Alternative Perspective to the Envision Central Texas Baseline Poll
Provided by Liveable City

Many experienced poll watchers in Austin were dismayed at the recent survey conducted on behalf of Envision Central Texas. As reported in the Statesman, the survey found that traffic was far and away the regions' biggest problem with a more than 30 point lead over jobs and health care. The environment, affordability, education and public safety barely registered at all in the short question on which the Statesman based its characterization of the full survey.

While the daily found the traffic score intriguing and placed a lengthy discussion of it on the front page of the August 26 edition, many residents of the five county area (Bastrop, Caldwell, Hays, Travis and Williamson) wondered out loud if the poll was somehow flawed. Nearly everyone understands that while traffic is a undoubtedly one of our toughest problems, it is by no means the only one.

Upon closer scrutiny, it turns out the survey has a number of regrettable design problems, which are summarized below. However, the study does include a number of important findings mentioned but not emphasized in the Statesman which merit further consideration. The highlights of these results include:

There is an extremely high degree of support for planning. 86% believe that planning for growth is necessary for livability.

Growth and sprawl, are seen as serious problems. 65% disagreed with the statement that " there is plenty of room for growth in the region and we shouldn't worry about the cities spreading out as they grow. More than one third of the region believe that local government should "try to slow growth down."

While some , including the Statesman, seem to assume that "traffic solutions" automatically means more roads, the data from across the five counties suggests significant support for sidewalks and bike paths (50%) and light rail (50%) as well as freeways (70%).

Perhaps the most revealing aspect of the poll is the pervasive degree of ambiguity and uncertainty regarding what the regions plan for growth should look like.

The Envision Central Texas project consultant, nationally known urban planner John Fregenese, described the poll results as very different from similar polls conducted in other cities - the Austin area has far less pre-exising "consensus" than other cites such as Nashville, Portland and Salt Lake City. And he specifically noted that Central Texas seems not to be as aware of the "trade-offs" between various growth scenarios. The issue of open space serves as just one example, 75% support higher density development in new areas with open space provided but only 38% are willing to have higher density in their own neighborhood so that open space can be preserved.

Other ambiguous opinions included a nearly even split between those favoring additional growth in developed versus undeveloped areas, the value of "mixed use" options and the value of car versus transit alternatives.

While this poll serves as just one snapshot of our region, its most important purpose for now is to underscore the key themes across five counties - growth is a problem, planning is important and we have to work harder to clarify our alternatives and choose intelligently among them.

Perhaps the best result that can stem from the community's investment in Envision Central Texas ( it is a nearly $2 Million dollar project) will be to raise awareness of the tradeoffs and unravel the ambiguity. That can only be accomplished by a setting a very high standard for real public participation and for leadership that insists on meaningful dialog about the implications, instead of rushing to "advocate" or "vote" on one specific scenario. We hope that the project Board will intensify its work on both of these objectives and that the community will step up to its opportunity to engage in this important endeavor as it evolves over the next several months.

Summary of Design Concerns

The Envision Central Texas poll has significant flaws. The sample size for Travis County is far too low, producing an effective sample size of 221 interviews instead of the 750 interviews reported. Further, the sample size limitations mean that the statistical validity of the survey is plus or minus 6.6 percent at the 95% confidence level, rather than the plus or minus 3% stated in the paper. This error means that the data, while "weighted" to approximate our proportional population distribution, does not in fact reflect the regional base of opinions with sufficient statistical reliability to be useful or actionable. In other words, the 833,797* residents of Travis County are represented by only 150 people, the same number of people who represent the less than 34,193 * residents of Caldwell County.

Liveable City's recommendation is that a follow up poll be conducted in the near future to re-validate the findings using more effective sampling techniques. We also suggest that the open ended nature of the question about top concerns be replaced with a more reliable "list" of problems for respondents to choose from or that the open ended question be accompanied by a second question that provides such a list so that a more thorough analysis can be made.

To download the poll data or powerpoint summary of the results from the Envision Central Texas site, go to www.envisioncentraltexas.org/resources.php.

If you have questions or comments about ECT or its poll, contact Liveable City at 469 3755 or info@Liveable City.org.

* County population estimates provided by the US Census Bureau.